Bloodbath in the markets last week owing to speculations of the Russian invasion of Ukraine affirmed the dominance of economic structure in the discourse of modern-day globalization. And as Russian forces stand few miles from the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament), we are staring at a long (man-made) crisis after seeing a brief relief from the pandemic.
The world stands connected enough for India to closely watch the events to secure our interests in the geopolitical front. This week’s post will expose you to the history, events leading to the ‘war’ and most importantly for our interest, the Indian angle.
Before the notes, here is what Putin wants:
Stop NATO's expansion (basically, exclude Ukraine. Why? You’ll know before this text ends)
Push troops out of Eastern Europe (Putin sees them as a threat to Russia's security)
The USA shall not protect its allies in eastern European
(Ik it sounds absurd for a country to be dictating terms to other sovereign but for Putin, as the title suggest, these are Putin's rights! )
Now, where do Russia and Ukraine's multidimensional conflict stand in geopolitical history?
History
Russia has been a part of the European order for over four centuries till Bolshevik Revolution surfaced the differences. The ideological differences deepened as Russia supported revolutions in other countries. All of this till the West needed Russia to win against Germany.
... then started the Cold war! USSR broke up in 1991. Russian insecurities again found no comfort. The troop mobilization (today) is a Russian attempt to assert its role in regional security order.
Russia’s Security
Warsaw Pact broke down while its counter NATO persists (and constantly expanding)
Putin wants to draw a line seeking security guarantees from the western world. (and thus, wants no Ukraine in NATO)
'Old Europe'
If you visit the views of scholars and leaders of the erstwhile USSR, the Soviet Union was considered a large family with Ukraine (rightly so) being its crown. (Ukraine was 2nd largest economy of the USSR)
Putin shared his views in a blog presenting his vision for Europe and ideas to 'stitch' back the old Soviet Union. In this essay, he termed the breakdown of the Soviet Union as the greatest tragedy of the 20th century [Personal recommendation, this is a must read to understand what’s going on his mind. Every word is significant]
(other things that happened in the 20th century? 2 world wars, famines, pearl harbor, end of colonialism and yet Soviet breakdown was the greatest tragedy, ofc!)
So, if the disintegration was the greatest tragedy, what were Putin and Russia doing for the last 30 years?
Putin has been in power for nearly 20 years and focused on reviving the Russian economy and now is the time to 'correct' the injustice of 1991.
How is west reacting to it?
French President did make some attempts to initiate dialogue for peace but now as we see, all in vain. While POTUS has promised sanctions like ‘never seen before’, most of western Europe finds itself in a catch-22 position.
Why, you ask? Allow this graphic below to tell you a thousand words!
Indian Angle:
The similarity between this crisis and that of India-Pakistan.
Chinese bullying tactics in the Indian Ocean (on Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Maldives)
Should India be worried?
While India has good relationships with both USA and USSR, here are some points of concern:
impact on S-400 deal
Indian nationals in Ukraine
Good news: The evacuation process is already in full swing after the conversation at highest level between President Putin and Prime Minister Modi
Oil prices & inflation
Union budget presented in the first week of February was based on estimates of oil prices ‘with no major fluctuation’ but here we are! $100+
Referendum
Russia's act of referendum in Crimea was hailed by Hurriyat as a 'great idea'. The uncanny similarity of the historic reference in the Indian stance on Kashmir can potentially become a bone of contention for India.
Concluding this note with prayers for peace and lives of everyone with a hope that sense prevails.
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