In a previous post of this newsletter, I shared an episode where I told an European friend about how nothing between India and Pakistan ever be normal.
The response to that post was critical in writing this one. I put myself to track what’s happening between India-Pak front and found 6 things in last one year:
February 2021: reaffirmed commitment to 2003 ceasefire along LoC [said to be a breakthrough achieved by backdoor diplomacy led by Sh Ajit Doval]
April 2021: Pakistan lifting ban on Indian imports (there was a U-turn on this in just 24 hours)
November 2021: Kartarpur Corridor reopened
December 2021: Some progress on issue of humanitarian aid (food) from India to Afghanistan via Pakistan
January 2022: Pakistan’s New Security Policy emphasize on relations with India and economic rise as a key pillar to security of the country
January 2022: India ready to engage Pak on expanding list of shrines for pilgrims
Considering these current affairs, I tried to counter my own words that “nothing between India-Pak ever be peaceful”
So, what can it be? Well, there are a lot of things but what most of these collectively point towards are trade relations. Here’s a look at stats from last 3 years:
Now, how can two move in direction of normalizing relations?
NOTE: This is not a personal opinion but how international laws/treaties can be put to normalize trade relations and resume cross border intercourse. If you have extreme political bias of yes/no on trade with Pakistan, feel free to skip educating yourself on logical arguments.
I spent the weekend nerding about possible scenarios and here’s what that has to be done:
1. Pak shall revoke unilateral suspension of trade (announced post August 5 2019 order of revoking Article 370)
Why? Violates 2 international law instruments regulating trade between India and Pak: GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) and SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Agreement)
How does it violate the two? Both allow suspension under national security, public health and exhaustible natural resources ONLY (and removal of Article 370 is India’s internal matter with no locus standi of any other country)
2. India shall restore MFN status for Pak (revoked post Pulwama by raising imports to 200%)
3. Pak shall give MFN (Most Favored Nation) status to India.
Funnily, India gave MFN status to Pak in 1995 but Pak never returned the obligation thus violating Article 1 of GATT
4. Make most use of Article XXIV.11 of GATT
This is one of the least known perks the two countries enjoy. XXIV.11 is an exception made only for India-Pakistan looking at exceptional history of the two.
What does it entail? The two can enter any special trading agreement without fully complying with GATT conditions that apply to others (Only Ind-Pak enjoy this of 160 WTO members)
Some thoughts:
Balance of trade is largely in favor of India. (as seen in stats above) It benefits Indian economy especially in the border regions to resume trade with Pakistan. At the same time, FATF induced problems Pakistan will find a breathing space in normalized relationship with India.
Personal Opinion: Any form of exchange is (and shall be) unviable as long as Pakistan does not put an end to terror export directed towards India.
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